Who will win Ohio's decisive Senate race? Donald Trump tests the strength of his support.
WASHINGTON( National Implications )— Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday again put his endorsement record on the line in the Ohio U.S. Senate race with national implications.
Who will win Ohio’s decisive Senate race? Donald Trump tests the strength of his support
Trump’s nominee, businessman Bernie Moreno, is in a tight primary battle with two other Republicans, Ohio State Senator Matt Dolan and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose.
The majority of Trump’s supporters have won races in ruby-red areas, but his record in competitive states is more mixed. In 2022, several high-profile candidates supported by Trump lost general elections in states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, with their contests potentially costing the GOP the majority in the US Senate.
You’ve got to win, Bernie,” Trump told his candidate during a Saturday rally at the Dayton airport. “Don’t leave me alone. Don’t leave me alone, Bernie.”
Dolan’s rise tests Trump
Dolan, a more traditional Republican, is testing the strength of Trump support with a late surge in the polls. The state lawmaker also has support from prominent Ohio Republicans, including Governor Mike DeWine.
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Who will win Ohio’s decisive Senate race? Donald Trump tests the strength of his support
The winner of the Republican primary will face incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown, a popular Democrat who is seeking his fourth term in the U.S. Senate.
The Moreno-Dolan clash reflects a long-term, Trump-era division within the Republican Party, which is divided between conservatives and Trump’s Make America Great Again movement, which is generally more conservative.
In his speech at the Dayton airport, Trump singled out Moreno as a MAGA candidate, while claiming Dolan is a so-called RINO, “Republican in Name Only.”
Trump compared Dolan to Senator Mitt Romney, R-Utah, the 2012 Republican presidential nominee who has become one of Trump’s most vocal critics.
On Tuesday, Ohio’s GOP voters have a chance to reflect on whether they’ll side with Trump’s chosen nominee, or a more established Republican in the Buckeye State
Some Trump candidates perform poorly in 2022- Donald Trump tests the strength of his support
Some Ohio Republicans have questioned whether a Trump-aligned candidate like Moreno could win the general election, saying his open deference to the former president could turn off liberal and independent voters.
Who will win Ohio’s decisive Senate race? Donald Trump tests the strength of his support.
The issue is troubling some Republican candidates during the 2022 congressional race. Trump often brags about his endorsements, but he also has a history of backing strong contenders. His track record in competitive states is more mixed.
In 2022, Trump’s endorsement boosted the Senate candidacies of Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Hershel Walker in Georgia, and Blake Masters in Arizona. All three winnable races were lost, preventing Republicans from taking control of the Senate.
On the other hand, the 2022 Trump endorsement in Ohio has J.D. Vance was picked up for the Senate nomination. Vance won the general election and is now considered a contender for the vice presidency.
Robert Alexander, director of the Institute for Civic and Public Policy at Ohio Northern University, said Moreno’s defeat would be seen as a rejection of Trump in a key state.
Are we completely MAGA, or is there still a sense of the traditional Republican establishment in (Ohio)?” Alexander said.
While Trump carried Ohio in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections?
Many Democrats expect Moreno to win the Republican nomination on Tuesday, believing the Trump-backed candidate will be the easiest opponent for Brown to defeat. While Trump carried Ohio in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, Brown is still a prominent figure in the diverse Upper Midwest state.
In another sense, Trump’s endorsement of Moreno already reflects the former president’s continued strength among the Republican base. Moreno is giving a tough fight in recent polls, even leading Dolan and LaRose.
Without the endorsement, Moreno would not be considered a contender in the Republican primary, said David Cohen, director of the Applied Politics Program at the University of Akron.
“This endorsement completely changed the complexion of the race,” Cohen said.
But a question remains for voters in the key swing state: Will that influence translate into victory on Tuesday?
Who will win Ohio’s decisive Senate race? Donald Trump tests the strength of his support